Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 99%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète15 janv. 24, 16:22 UTC2 janv. 35, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the first successful Artemis crewed lunar landing be done using a Blue Origin lander?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate?
Manifold MarketsArtemis program lunar landing success discourages chinese moon landing ambitions?
Manifold MarketsHuman moon landing in 2026?
PolymarketNASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRègles
To resolve YES the mission designated Artemis 3 must involve a human footstep on the moon.
- To resolve NO Artemis 3 must be canceled or rescoped to not include a moon landing.
- Landing failure resolves NO; any failure after an astronaut walks on the moon resolves YES.
- Launch vehicle, landing vehicle, and other details are irrelevant.
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2035.
- Comment Will Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : To resolve YES the mission designated Artemis 3 must involve a human footstep on the moon.