Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 89.9%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète24 janv. 25, 17:46 UTC2 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsConditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
Manifold MarketsWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketIsrael x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRègles
For this market, "world leader" is defined as any head of government or head of state of any country which has a population of at least five million people.
- Will any such major world leader call for a global pause on AI development/progress before the end of 2027? The pause would not need to be absolute to qualify, but a pause on certain use cases (eg, weaponry or surveillance) would not suffice.
- I will not bet on this market.
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2028.
- Comment Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : For this market, "world leader" is defined as any head of government or head of state of any country which has a population of at least five million people.