Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 92.4%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard24 janv. 25, 17:46 UTC2 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "AI pause: the case for ASAP" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsConditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
Manifold MarketsAI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Trump publicly call for a global AI slowdown?
KalshiWill Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
For this market, "world leader" is defined as any head of government or head of state of any country which has a population of at least five million people.
- Will any such major world leader call for a global pause on AI development/progress before the end of 2027? The pause would not need to be absolute to qualify, but a pause on certain use cases (eg, weaponry or surveillance) would not suffice.
- I will not bet on this market.