Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 68.2%
Prévisionnistes
64
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète5 nov. 23, 02:47 UTC2 janv. 35, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?
Manifold Markets"Conditional AI pause" commitment triggers antitrust enforcement by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a more significant protest calling for a pause in AI than the pause letter by May 2029 (or an actual pause)?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump publicly call for a global AI slowdown?
KalshiOpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if a global AI pause is enacted at any time before 2035, and we survive to 2035.
- Resolves NO if we survive without enacting an AI pause
- For the purpose of this question: A global AI pause is a pause agreed on or forced upon countries that cumutatively make up over 95% of AI research between 2024 and the year the pause comes into effect.
- A pause must force all AI training within the affected countries to be strongly restricted or banned, according to specific and extensive rules and restrictions.
- Update 2026-09-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A 6-month pause qualifies as a global AI pause for the purpose of this market's resolution.