"Conditional AI pause" commitment triggers antitrust enforcement by EOY 2028?
IAOne-OffCriminalité et justice2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOpenAI 10%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète14 juil. 26, 00:17 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
Manifold MarketsWill any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a more significant protest calling for a pause in AI than the pause letter by May 2029 (or an actual pause)?
Manifold MarketsWill "AI pause: the case for ASAP" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWho will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
Polymarket2026 political predictions (add your own)
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves YES: IF {AI Company} makes a public commitment to a conditional pause of AI capabilities AND {AI Company} suffers antitrust repercussions as a consequence.
- Resolves N/A: IF no such commitment is made by {AI Company}.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Definitions:
- public: on the company website or official corporate social media accounts (eg CEO's twitter account doesn't qualify)
- conditional: commitment activates only when other companies also pause
