Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 69.7%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard22 févr. 25, 17:18 UTC1 janv. 00, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In what year will Al take 50% of human jobs?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will Al take 90% of human jobs?
Manifold MarketsWill AI take 50% of human jobs before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Al take 25% of human jobs before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in the world throughout the 2020s
Manifold MarketsWill AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution Criteria:
- The question will resolve to YES if at least one of the following occurs:
- The broader unemployment rate (U-6) reaches 25% or higher
- The labor force participation rate drops by 25% or more from its 2024 baseline of 62.5%.
- In this context the LFPR should fall to 46.9% or lower.
- This question is concerned with lost jobs and not the number of hours worked per week.
