Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 89.4%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète1 nov. 25, 14:40 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any scientific discovery in 2026 that will increase penis size?
Manifold MarketsAI: Major scientific discovery by 2030
Manifold MarketsWill a scientific discovery extend human lifespan by more than 10 years within the next 20 years?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
At EOY 2026 I will ask @Bayesian , @TimothyJohnson5c16 , @Joshua , @Ziddletwix , and @nikki whether they believe it has.
- If after a week any disagree this question will resolve NO.
- Otherwise, it will resolve YES.
- If any of the users is unreachable, they will not be taken into account for the resolution.