Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 68%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète6 sept. 26, 19:26 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026?
Manifold MarketsSOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
Manifold MarketsWill there be any scientific discovery in 2026 that will increase penis size?
Manifold MarketsWill Massachusetts scientific R&D jobs rise YoY?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
An AI journalist recently claimed that Anthropic will release a SOTA model ahead of its IPO, with the “story built around a major scientific discovery”.
- https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/s/AoZ7CBvZcq
- [image]Resolves yes if this actually happens (the scientific discovery, regardless of whether a new model is released).
- My criteria is that this discovery (whichever field of science it applies to) must be generally considered equally or more significant than any of the Claude mathematical results Anthropic and Anthropic employees have already reported on.
- If it appears too close to tell, I will err on resolving yes.
- If multiple discoveries are reported, I will judge the most impressive one.