Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 90.6%
Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète1 déc. 23, 12:38 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
At the time of market creation, AI music models were already able to generate songs of 80 seconds in length that approached the quality of what an average musician could output.
- How long will it be until AI becomes superintelligent at music?
- This market will resolve to YES immediately if a mainstream media outlet publishes an article stating that an AI model has produced a work that is superior to that written by Bach, Beethoven, or Mozart before December 31, 2026.
- The work may be from any genre and may be a type of audio waveform that was not previously known to humans, or which is not possible to create with musical instruments.
- The waveform must be original and may not simply be a superior remix of one of those composers' works.
- It will also resolve to YES if the general public consensus is that AI music is now better than human music in all respects.