Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2026- 26.3%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 39 minutes
2 déc. 25, 21:58 UTC30 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI achieve superintelligence in music composition by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
The market resolves to the first year in which an AI system achieves above 90% on the single shot avg solve rate on all puzzles in the Sudoku benchmark hosted at https://pub.sakana.ai/sudoku/.
- Resolution will be determined by the official results published on that benchmark page.
- If no AI system reaches 90% accuracy by the end of 2030, the market resolves to "2031+".
- Top score as of 2025.12.02 is 33% by gpt-5 high.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2026- à 26% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench? doit être résolu le 30 décembre 2030.
- Comment In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The market resolves to the first year in which an AI system achieves above 90% on the single shot avg solve rate on all puzzles in the Sudoku benchmark hosted at https://pub.sakana.ai/sudoku/.