Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 52.9%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète4 mars 26, 18:50 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsHow long until we see the first report of a true AGI (Artificial General Intelligence)
Manifold MarketsWill AI be officially recognized as ‘AGI’ (Artificial General Intelligence) before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will any company achieve AGI?
KalshiWhen will OpenAI achieve AGI?
KalshiRègles
Will at least one AI system publicly demonstrated before January 1, 2030 meet the criteria for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?
- RESOLUTION CRITERIA
- This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030, a single AI system is publicly demonstrated that satisfies ALL of the following conditions:
- Performs at or above human expert level on a broad range of cognitively demanding tasks spanning at least 5 distinct domains (e.g. mathematics, coding, science, writing, reasoning, medicine).
- Can learn and adapt to entirely new tasks with minimal instruction (few-shot or zero-shot), without task-specific retraining.
- Can autonomously plan and execute long-horizon tasks (multi-day, multi-step agentic work) that generate measurable real-world value.
