Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 57.9%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
16 sept. 26, 05:37 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIs Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
KalshiWill the House pass the AI Kill Switch bill in 2026?
PredictItWhen will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?
KalshiRègles
The spirit of this question is that the AI should intentionally make a decision to kill someone and carry this out without a human in the loop, and that this would not even potentially be considered a reasonable decision under the circumstances by a human responsible for the AI.
- Examples which would NOT resolve YES:
- An AI used for military purposes kills someone who it believes to be a valid target, even if they turn out not to be (for example, friendly fire)
- An autonomous vehicle avoids a potentially fatal collision, causing a different fatal collision, even if it was aware that this would be the result
- An industrial robot accidentally kills someone without being aware that this would happen
- A human kills someone or commits suicide after talking to an AI (for example, "AI psychosis")
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 58% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The spirit of this question is that the AI should intentionally make a decision to kill someone and carry this out without a human in the loop, and that this would not even potentially be considered a reasonable decision under the circumstances by a human responsible for the AI.