Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 50.3%
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15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard16 sept. 26, 05:37 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIs Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. military be defeated by a rogue AI before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the House pass the AI Kill Switch bill in 2026?
PredictItWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
KalshiRègles
The spirit of this question is that the AI should intentionally make a decision to kill someone and carry this out without a human in the loop, and that this would not even potentially be considered a reasonable decision under the circumstances by a human responsible for the AI.
- Examples which would NOT resolve YES:
- An AI used for military purposes kills someone who it believes to be a valid target, even if they turn out not to be (for example, friendly fire)
- An autonomous vehicle avoids a potentially fatal collision, causing a different fatal collision, even if it was aware that this would be the result
- An industrial robot accidentally kills someone without being aware that this would happen
- A human kills someone or commits suicide after talking to an AI (for example, "AI psychosis")
