Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 62.2%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 minutes
20 sept. 26, 15:58 UTC30 sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsOpus 5.2 released in September?
Manifold MarketsNext Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Claude Sonnet released by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Anthropic officially releases a new model in the "Sonnet" tier during the month of September 2026 (between September 1, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- To qualify for a YES resolution, the model must meet the following conditions:
- It must be officially announced by Anthropic or listed as a generally available or publicly accessible to claude.ai, Claude Code, or API users.
- It must explicitly feature "Sonnet" in its official name (e.g., Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 6).
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
+13 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 269,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 199,9 k €
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 107,5 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,3 M €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 85 k €
- Volume 24h
- 65,3 k €
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 62.2% au 22 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? doit être résolu le 30 septembre 2026.
- Comment Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria