Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?
QuarterlyIA6moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80.1%
Prévisionnistes
46
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète6 août 26, 08:03 UTC31 mars 27, 23:59 UTC
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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tess (@xsphi) on Twitter asks:
- odds a ~frontier model has exfiltrated its weights and is currently running on hacked compute?
- https://x.com/i/status/2085216850464641413
- This seems like a straightforward enough question to run on Manifold.
- As background there have now been four notable incidents where frontier models went rogue during cybersecurity evals and hacked into unintended targets.
- Three of these incidents involved the sandboxing eval company Irregular failing to sandbox the model properly, however a fourth incident involving the UK AI Security Institute does not seem to involve Irregular.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 80% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027? doit être résolu le 31 mars 2027.
- Comment Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : tess (@xsphi) on Twitter asks: