Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleIn hiding from US/Israeli assassination 51.5%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète10 juil. 26, 15:18 UTC1 janv. 27, 00:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be alive on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn how many days will Mojtaba Khamenei die?
Manifold MarketsTrump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by which date?
PolymarketMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
LimitlessMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Or given any televised statements.
- I'll resolve it to whatever the NYT attributes the absence to, but I'll only start checking 3 months after his first public appearance, as allowance for fog of war.
- I may resolve to prob.
- Update 2026-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be a split resolution between all answers invoked in the reporting sampled, not necessarily equal weight
- December 31 close date is a placeholder; creator will attempt to resolve ~3 months after Mojtaba Khamenei's first public appearance
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
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+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
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POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
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- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public? ?
- Manifold Markets cote In hiding from US/Israeli assassination à 52% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Or given any televised statements.