Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleAlina Chan 80%En tête parmi 18 options
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète15 mars 25, 21:40 UTC16 mars 30, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsNew COVID variant of concern before 2027?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketNew pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.
- Many people have strong opinions on this question, from scientists to pundits.
- This question seeks to answer how those opinions will change, after another 5 years have passed.
- At the resolution date, I will search for the most recent statement from each person listed.
- If they say that a lab origin is more likely, I will resolve that name to yes.
- If they say that zoonosis is more likely, I will resolve that name to no.
Marchés ouverts
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Volume total
- 15,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 20,4 k €
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume total
- 919 k €
- Volume 24h
- 4,2 k €
KALSHIMedtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2
- Above 8%92%
- Above 9%81%
- Above 11.5%53%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2,6 k €
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑3.5k+0.1pt100%
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000+3.0pt61%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 866,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 k €
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Volume total
- 611,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1 k €
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- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Alina Chan à 80% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? doit être résolu le 16 mars 2030.
- Comment Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.