Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Serhiy Kuznetsov 91.8%En tête parmi 15 options
Prévisionnistes
143
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète20 août 24, 20:30 UTC28 août 28, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
PolymarketWill Nord Stream 2 open?
KalshiIs a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?
Manifold MarketsWill Nord Stream resume operations by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine apologize for blowing up Nord stream 2 before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRègles
Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nord_Stream_pipeline_sabotage
- Multiple answers will be chosen if more than one actor is involved. “Involved” means has knowledge of the event and contributed to the sabotage prior to its happening.
- Resolves when there is a clear actor beyond a reasonable doubt.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Who blew up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Serhiy Kuznetsov à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Who blew up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Who blew up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline? doit être résolu le 28 août 2028.
- Comment Who blew up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nord_Stream_pipeline_sabotage