When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
13.0 pts (24h)IA4moManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNot before 2030 68.5%+13.0ptEn tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+13.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 29 minutes
25 mars 24, 3:572 janv. 27, 7:59
Tendances
Règles
Will a high-volume, real money prediction market expect that OpenAI is at least 90% likely to announce the creation of AGI before 2030?
- This market resolves to the period of time in which an eligible market first stays above 90%, not the period of time that the market predicts AGI to be announced.
- This means that if a real money market in 2025 expects OpenAI to announce AGI in 2027, this market resolves to the option "the named outcome"
- Eligible markets are listed at the bottom of this market description, and more markets will be added as they are created and receive similar amounts of real money trading volume.
- To resolve this Manifold market, an eligible real money market must have limit orders keeping the price above 90% for at least 30 days, with the displayed price never dropping below 90% for more than 24 continuous hours.
- Note: These criteria are still in draft form, and may be updated to better match the spirit of the question.
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 255,6 k €
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $72,500 or above97.5%
- $73,000 or above97%
- $73,500 or above97%
+36 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 143,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 130,5 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 7,8 M €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Not before 2030 à 69% au 21 août 2026.
- Quand When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will a high-volume, real money prediction market expect that OpenAI is at least 90% likely to announce the creation of AGI before 2030?