Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète6 avr. 25, 22:23 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Xi stay on power by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump attempts to withdraw from NATO
Manifold MarketsTrump attempts to overstay his 2 terms
Manifold MarketsTrump attempts to reduce DARPA funding by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump go on SNL during his second term?
KalshiHow many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
KalshiRègles
Resolves a YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has attempted to use AGI to stay in power after the end of his second term.
- This attempt must occur before January 1st 2030 in order for this question to resolve as YES.
- This market does not resolve before January 1st 2031.
- Update 2025-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - AGI Definition: Follow the definition provided in this question.
- Minimum Compute Requirement: The attempt must involve at least 100 kWh of inference compute using an AGI-class model.
