Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83.3%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète6 avr. 25, 22:23 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Xi stay on power by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
Manifold MarketsTrumps Power After His Second Term?
Manifold MarketsTrump To Serve Second Term In Full
SmarketsWill Trump go on SNL during his second term?
KalshiHow many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
KalshiRègles
Resolves a YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has attempted to use AGI to stay in power after the end of his second term.
- This attempt must occur before January 1st 2030 in order for this question to resolve as YES.
- This market does not resolve before January 1st 2031.
- Update 2025-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - AGI Definition: Follow the definition provided in this question.
- Minimum Compute Requirement: The attempt must involve at least 100 kWh of inference compute using an AGI-class model.
Marchés ouverts
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 résultats de plus
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- Volume 24h
- 291,3 k €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 83% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves a YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has attempted to use AGI to stay in power after the end of his second term.