Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80%
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète20 févr. 25, 20:59 UTC1 janv. 30, 10:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Donald Trump attempts to withdraw from NATO
Manifold MarketsTrump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term?
Manifold MarketsTrump attempts to reduce DARPA funding by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Polymarket2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRègles
According to a YouGov poll 52% believe that Trump "definitely" or "probably" will attempt a 3rd term.
- Resolves YES if there is clear and unequivocal evidence that Trump:
- Runs for a 3rd presidential term
- Attempts to subvert the 22nd Amendment in any (serious) way (e.g. through executive orders, trying to change the constitution, legal challenge, or campaigning)
- Prevents a peaceful transition of power
- Tries in some serious way to stay in power past January 20, 2029