Prévision communautaire actuelle
By Dec 31, 2030 98.5%En tête parmi 6 options
By Dec 31, 2030 98.5%Prévisionnistes
35
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète7 janv. 25, 04:56 UTC1 janv. 32, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).
- In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
- Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
- Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
- Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
- The options would resolve as follows:
