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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. IA
  3. When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

IAOne-OffSpaceTech5a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSans KYC
Prévision communautaire actuelle
By Dec 31, 2025
By Dec 31, 2025 74%
En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes

33

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 4 jours

Obsolète
7 janv. 25, 4:561 janv. 32, 5:59

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

By Dec 31, 202574%

Règles

Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).

Manifold Markets
  • In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
  • Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
  • Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
  • Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
  • The options would resolve as follows:

Marchés Associés

Manifold Markets

Combined IPO market cap of Anthropic + OpenAI + SpaceX

165,2 €
Under $3T: 1.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

OpenAI highest valuation by end of June 2026

146,8 €
≥$0.6T: 100%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

What will happen in 2026 related to AI?

74,6 €
Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.: 72.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

0 €
SpaceX: 86%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?

Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?

7,5 €
SpaceX: 100%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?

Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?

9 k €
↑$1.6T: 100%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,403.01+1.43%EthereumETH$1,646.41+0.94%SolanaSOL$64.89+0.45%DogecoinDOGE$0.0844+0.45%BNBBNB$593.75+0.96%XRPXRP$1.11-0.67%

Actualités Associées

Anthropic launches Claude Fable 5 with new safeguardsCrypto NewsEU orders Meta to restore WhatsApp access for rival AI chatbotsCrypto NewsJPMorgan plans longer-running AI agents for corporate workflows Crypto NewsOpenAI Files for IPO, Targets Valuation Up to $850BBlockchain.NewsOpenAI confidentially files to go public in the USCointelegraphNvidia expands South Korean AI partnerships across chips, cloud, and robotics Crypto News

Règles

Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).

Manifold Markets
  • In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
  • Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
  • Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
  • Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
  • The options would resolve as follows: