Probabilité implicite actuelle
Non 84%
Non 84%Qualité du marché
35 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
1,6 k €
Faible liquiditéTraders
7
Commentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRègles
This market predicts whether SpaceX will successfully demonstrate in-orbit refueling of a Starship vehicle during calendar year 2026.
- If, during this period, SpaceX successfully transfers at least 1 metric ton of propellant from one Starship vehicle to another Starship vehicle while both are in Earth orbit, and the transfer is publicly confirmed by SpaceX as a successful propellant transfer, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The Primary Designated Source is SpaceX's official communications (spacex.com, X account @SpaceX, official mission webcasts), supported by NASA and FAA mission reports where applicable.
- A consensus of credible reporting by reliable news outlets chosen at Futuur’s discretion may be used to confirm the demonstration.
- In ambiguous edge cases, resolution will follow the spirit of the question.