Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 78.1%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète10 juin 26, 23:05 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
Manifold MarketsWill a top 5 US fast-food chain launch a non-dairy milkshake nationally by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
Manifold Markets(Musk Predicition) Will SpaceX Launch Spacebound Rockets every hour within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?
FutuurSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if SpaceX successfully launches at least one non-SpaceX payload on a Starship mission before January 1, 2030 (UTC).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- For the purposes of this market, the following definitions and rules apply:
- Non-SpaceX Payload: Any active, functional payload—including commercial or government satellites, deep-space probes, space station modules, or scientific instruments—that is owned, operated, or primary-contracted by an entity other than SpaceX (such as NASA, the U.S. Department of Defense, a foreign space agency, a university, or a third-party commercial operator).
- Crewed & Lunar Missions:
