Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle>=2030 30.3%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète25 févr. 26, 04:11 UTC31 déc. 30, 12:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This resolves positive when a credible public report describes a fully autonomous upgrade to an app or website of a company worth more than $100M that outperforms the previous version under an A/B test or similarly rigorous measurement.
- I will try to resolve to when the upgrade occurred, rather than when the report was published. "Fully autonomous" means the upgrade was designed, implemented, tested, and deployed by automated systems; human involvement is limited to setting up the system and requesting an upgrade.
- Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The performance metric will be determined by whatever metric the company chooses to measure performance in their A/B test, not by any specific predefined metric.
- Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The performance metric used to evaluate the upgrade can be any metric chosen by the company conducting the A/B test.
- There is no restriction on what constitutes a valid performance metric.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test ?
- Manifold Markets cote >=2030 à 30% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This resolves positive when a credible public report describes a fully autonomous upgrade to an app or website of a company worth more than $100M that outperforms the previous version under an A/B test or similarly rigorous measurement.