Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2027 41.4%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+7.2 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète22 juin 26, 10:41 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
Manifold MarketsUkraine to concede formal autonomy to the Donbas region in 2026?
FutuurWill Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by which date?
PolymarketWill Ukraine regain control of the whole of Kherson region by 2028?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the year (2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, or 2030) in which the Russian Federation establishes complete control over the entire Donbas region.
- If this is not achieved by December 31, 2030, the market will resolve to "Never."
- For the purposes of this market:
- The Donbas region is defined as the combined administrative territories within the official pre-2014 borders of Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast.
- Complete control means Russian military forces (or proxy forces aligned with Russia) exercise physical control over 100% of the land within the administrative borders of both oblasts.