FutuurVérifier la disponibilitéDonnées de résolution vérifiéesProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 87%
Non 87%Qualité du marché
33 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
927,7 €
Faible liquiditéTraders
7
Commentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
Tendances
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
Manifold MarketsWhen is Russia going to conquer the Donbas region.
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This event predicts whether Ukraine will formally grant constitutional or legal autonomy to the Donbas region at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official Ukrainian constitutional amendments or laws establishing autonomy for the Donbas region.
- If Ukraine formally enacts constitutional or legal measures granting autonomy to the Donbas region during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If autonomy is granted only to part of the Donbas region, Futuur may use its discretion to determine whether this constitutes effective autonomy.
- If official legal texts are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major Ukrainian or international news organizations.