When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality?
IAOne-Off3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleAfter 2035 68.7%En tête parmi 8 options
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Obsolète24 févr. 25, 00:58 UTC1 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRègles
Inspired by this Twitter/X thread, but others have expressed similar concerns.
- "WMD" is here defined as a nuclear, radiological, chemical, or biological weapon.
- The attack does not need to be successful, just result in at least one death (e.g. the aspiring terrorist accidentally gasses themselves.)
- "Unrestricted" is here defined as any LLM that will help with planning a WMD attack, whether because it was not designed to refuse such a request, was verbally persuaded/jailbroken to do so, was fine-tuned by someone to do so, etc. I'll try to be generous regarding whether access to the LLM "resulted in" the attack.
- Unless it's extremely clear that the perpetrator(s) could have accomplished it on their own (e.g. a professional chemist using an LLM to speed up ordering glassware for their chemical weapons project), any use of an LLM will resolve YES.
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- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Inspired by this Twitter/X thread, but others have expressed similar concerns.