World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)
InflationOne-OffMacro & EconomyÉconomieForeign ExchangeBusiness & Corporate
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 64%
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète22 mai 23, 02:13 UTC1 févr. 01, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
Nominal US Dollars, not PPP adjusted, not inflation adjusted.
- Resolves prob to 10*((world gdp 2100 / world gdp 2023)^(1/77)-1)
- If dollars cease to exist during the interval, I'll use the next largest fiat currency at the last available exchange rate from dollars to that currency.
- (e.g., if 1 USD = 4 Yuan just before the dollar ceases to exist, then the 2100 world gdp will be measured in Yuan and divided by 4 to convert it to the dollars that no longer exist)
- Related arb-able markets:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/what-will-be-the-annualized-nominal)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/what-will-be-the-relative-change-in-c6b0e4fca80a)