World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)
InflationOne-OffMacro et économieÉconomieDevisesEntreprises et affaires
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 07:57 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 64.1%
Oui 64.1%Prévisionnistes
34
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète22 mai 23, 02:13 UTC1 févr. 01, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Roman Empire produce more than 10% of world GDP in 2100?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)
Manifold Markets2026 World GDP Growth
PolymarketIn what year will China's nominal GDP first exceed that of the United States?
Manifold MarketsUS nominal GDP growth in 2036
KalshiUS nominal GDP growth in 2035
KalshiRègles
Nominal US Dollars, not PPP adjusted, not inflation adjusted.
- Resolves prob to 10*((world gdp 2100 / world gdp 2023)^(1/77)-1)
- If dollars cease to exist during the interval, I'll use the next largest fiat currency at the last available exchange rate from dollars to that currency.
- (e.g., if 1 USD = 4 Yuan just before the dollar ceases to exist, then the 2100 world gdp will be measured in Yuan and divided by 4 to convert it to the dollars that no longer exist)
- Related arb-able markets:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/what-will-be-the-annualized-nominal)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/what-will-be-the-relative-change-in-c6b0e4fca80a)