KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Above 1.5% 75%En tête parmi 13 options
Qualité du marché
25 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
479,6 €
Faible liquiditéÉcart
10.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
6 août 26, 22:00 UTC28 janv. 37, 13:29 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US nominal GDP growth in 2035
KalshiUS nominal GDP growth in 2034
KalshiUS nominal GDP growth in 2033
KalshiWill AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the US be the largest economy by nominal gdp in 2052?
Manifold MarketsUS nominal GDP growth in 2032
KalshiRègles
If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2036 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- The Underlying is the 2036 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2036,” or its equivalent successor publication.
- The value will be taken as reported by BEA, in percentage terms and to the precision published by BEA.
- Subsequent estimates, revisions, annual updates, or benchmark revisions will not affect resolution.
- If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2036 is above 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2036 is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Marchés ouverts
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 334,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7 k €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- 612,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 2,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3 k €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US nominal GDP growth in 2036 ?
- Kalshi cote Above 1.5% à 75% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand US nominal GDP growth in 2036 sera-t-il résolu ?
- US nominal GDP growth in 2036 doit être résolu le 28 janvier 2037.
- Comment US nominal GDP growth in 2036 est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2036 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.