What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are ~~gone~~ back?
FedOne-OffMacro et économie4a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Resolves No at end of 2026 1%En tête parmi 6 options
Resolves No at end of 2026 1%Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète6 juil. 24, 18:53 UTC1 janv. 31, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What's the risk-free interest rate until 2028 on Manifold Markets?
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)
Manifold MarketsWhat is the risk-free interest rate for markets with ridiculously distant resolution dates?
Manifold MarketsWill the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]
Manifold MarketsNumber of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
FutuurUS basic interest rate at the end of 2026
FutuurRègles
These markets resolve No on popular market resolution dates, so the percentage of these markets show the opportunity cost of money for markets resolving on those dates.
- There are existing markets for this already, but they were created while Manifold was giving loans for long term markets, which caused interest rates to be much lower.
- And there is no incentive to correct them by buying Yes unless you think other traders will need to liquidate their positions to free up capital, so they do not reflect the current risk-free interest rate.
