The anti-vax market: Which vaccines become less available in the US, 2025-2026
PolitiqueOne-OffHealth & MedicineUS Politics3mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
COVID (mRNA vaccines) 100%En tête parmi 14 options
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète7 nov. 24, 23:41 UTC4 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
100%
100%
Marchés Associés
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KalshiRègles
Trump has a lot of prominent anti-vaxxers in his circle, including RFK Jr. who has flip-flopped about whether he wants to see vaccines banned.
- So here's a market for a dozen common vaccines in the US.
- Each of these markets will resolve YES if, any some time prior to the seating of the 120th congress (Jan 3, 2027), the vaccine becomes greatly more expensive, less covered by major insurance, or in sufficient shortage to cause people to miss scheduled doses, or no longer approved for significant populations (e.g. children or the elderly) that could previously get it in the US.
- Removal of mandates or recommendations will not be a YES unless it also results in changes in insurance coverage or availability.
- No distinction will be made as to whether the reduced availability is attributable to an obvious government policy, natural disaster, occult UFO conspiracy, or chance, because I don't want to suss out means and motives to resolve the market.
- If I've missed an interesting vaccine, or otherwise messed up a choice, request it in the comments.