Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 84%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète11 févr. 25, 12:05 UTC21 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%?
Manifold MarketsWill the US treasury "be put on the blockchain" by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?
PolymarketUS Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by which date?
Polymarket30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if there is a default on any US federal debt during the current four-year presidential term (before inauguration day 2029).
- This includes "technical default"; that is, "default" will be construed very broadly: Any failure of more than a day to make any scheduled payment on any debt instrument previously broadly believed to be valid.
- The resolution to this is unlikely to be subtle, but just in case:
- Traditional CDS trigger events like moratorium, repudiation, or acceleration resolve YES.
- Declaring debt previously considered valid (valued near the market rate) to be invalid, or to make foreign-held debt non-redeemable, would resolve YES.
- The 1979 "mini-default" (payments delayed several weeks due to technology issues) would resolve YES.
Marchés ouverts
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt43.1%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 34,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,6 M €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt49.5%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt43.5%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 543,8 k €
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.8pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.9pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.6pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts1%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 7,6 M €
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 84% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029 doit être résolu le 21 janvier 2029.
- Comment Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if there is a default on any US federal debt during the current four-year presidential term (before inauguration day 2029).