Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029
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Données au 26 oct. 2026, 04:28 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 84%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète11 févr. 25, 12:05 UTC21 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?
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FutuurWill Brightline (Florida) default in 2026
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Manifold Markets30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
KalshiRègles
This market resolves YES if there is a default on any US federal debt during the current four-year presidential term (before inauguration day 2029).
- This includes "technical default"; that is, "default" will be construed very broadly: Any failure of more than a day to make any scheduled payment on any debt instrument previously broadly believed to be valid.
- The resolution to this is unlikely to be subtle, but just in case:
- Traditional CDS trigger events like moratorium, repudiation, or acceleration resolve YES.
- Declaring debt previously considered valid (valued near the market rate) to be invalid, or to make foreign-held debt non-redeemable, would resolve YES.
- The 1979 "mini-default" (payments delayed several weeks due to technology issues) would resolve YES.
