Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle60 or more days 50.1%En tête parmi 17 options
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+27.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète16 févr. 26, 05:24 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
KalshiHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
PolymarketHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
LimitlessHow many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
KalshiHow many Starship launches will occur in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX's Starship have 40 successful launches before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Shortest gap between any two launches - does NOT need to be same ship or booster.
- Short gaps in 2025 included January 16th to March 6th flights 7 and 8 with 49 day gap August 27th to October 14th flights 10 and 11 with 48 day gap
- If version 3 works well, manufacturing might speed up considerably and there might be reuse and even refuelling attempts but it isn't clear how fast pad 2 can be turned around if the ships and boosters are available.
- If it doesn't work well like version 2, then long delays are possible.