Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 99%
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète30 déc. 23, 03:59 UTC3 janv. 27, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
Manifold MarketsHow many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
KalshiHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
LimitlessHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
PolymarketStortest gap between two SpaceX Starship launches in 2026
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
See also: @/Alexf3a5/will-spacexs-starship-superheavy-la
- I will use the same criteria as that market: has a payload been delivered in a way that a customer would be happy with?
- Update 2025-07-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Based on the linked market's criteria, the creator has provided the following clarifications:
- For test flights with no payload, a launch is successful if it reaches its target trajectory or destination, disregarding later failures related to vehicle recovery.
- Under these terms, Starship Flight 3 is considered a success.
- The current count of successful launches is 4.