Probabilité implicite actuelle
5-6 53.5%En tête parmi 8 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualite du marche
24 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
8,6 €
Liquidité
—
Liquidité inconnueDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
26 juin 26, 9:4531 déc. 26, 0:00
Tendances
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
Règles
5-6 · 16 · 13-14 · 15-16 · 11-12.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level.
- Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary.
- However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Référence CoinRithm 5-6 53% · 2 plateformes · bande de 6 pt
- Également disponible sur Manifold Markets — How many Starship launches will occur in 2026? · 3 or more 97%
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? · 5-6 53%
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026? · Above 3 88%
