Probabilité implicite actuelle
5-6 65.7%+0.5ptEn tête parmi 8 options
Qualite du marche
49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
0 €
Liquidité
27,8 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
16.0% / 19.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Spread modéréVariation 7j
-12.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 27 minutes
12 déc. 25, 0:4531 déc. 26, 0:00
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
5-667%
Comparer les plateformes· 5-6
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMeilleur global90% de correspondance · auto | Moyenne | 51% | -16pt | 424 € | 14,5 k € | il y a 27 minutes | Ouvrir → |
 PolymarketCette page | Faible | 67% | 0pt | 0 € | 27,8 k € | il y a 27 minutes | |
| Kalshi80% de correspondance · lié | Faible | 88% | +21pt | 0 € | 2,3 k € | il y a 27 minutes | Ouvrir → |
 Limitless94% de correspondance · auto | Faible | 67% | 0pt | 0 € | 0 € | il y a 27 minutes | Ouvrir → |
 Manifold Markets82% de correspondance · vérifié | — | 91% | +24pt | — | — | il y a 27 minutes | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur Limitless
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5mo
64.3%
17.8%
10.1%
+5 résultats de plus
27 • Faible qualitéSpread inconnuFaible liquiditéMarché peu profond
Volume total21,6 €
Volume 24h0 €
LIMITLESSÉgalement disponible sur Kalshi
How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
5mo
44%
19.8%
15.5%
+7 résultats de plus
54 • Qualité moyenneSpread modéréLiquidité moyenneAmbiguïté élevée
Volume total22,8 k €
Volume 24h424 €
KALSHIÉgalement disponible sur Manifold Markets
How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?
5mo
+1.8pt91%
+6.0pt66.8%
+3.4pt30.4%
+5 résultats de plus
Prévision communautaire60 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSÉgalement disponible sur Kalshi
How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
5mo
88%
71%
38%
+7 résultats de plus
40 • Faible qualitéSpread largeLiquidité moyenne
Volume total2,9 k €
Volume 24h0 €
KALSHIRègles
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level.
- Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary.
- However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$22 juil.26j de données27 juil.
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KALSHI
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MANIFOLD MARKETSBy which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?
26,4 €4 (all flight #s are on or before): 0%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Elon Bull Run Parlay
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This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level.
- Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary.
- However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.