Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?
IAOne-Off3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 72.8%
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26
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète14 août 25, 22:55 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
Follow-on from https://manifold.markets/Jasonb/will-a-gpt4-level-efficient-hrm-bas, since I'm interested in the possibility (or impossibility) of architectural innovations more broadly.
- Resolution criteria:
- The architecture must be meaningfully different from an auto-regressive transformer, either not transformer based at all, or a significant fusion of a transformer with other components.
- To clarify, something similar to incorporation of Mixture-of-Experts would not count, but diffusion based LLMs would (though they also need to meet the other criteria).
- The model must be significantly better than previous LLMs in some important aspect.
- E.g. for the same amount of training data it achieves much higher performance, or it can achieve similar performance to frontier models with far fewer parameters, or it lacks some failure mode common to current or future transformer-based LLMs.
Marchés ouverts
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- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 73% au 8 septembre 2026.
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- Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Follow-on from https://manifold.markets/Jasonb/will-a-gpt4-level-efficient-hrm-bas, since I'm interested in the possibility (or impossibility) of architectural innovations more broadly.