Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?
IAOne-Off3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 79.6%
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5
Type de question
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète23 nov. 25, 22:48 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
Resolves according to this leaderboard: https://artificialanalysis.ai/?omniscience=omniscience-hallucination-rate.
- The metric we are looking it as percentage of non-correct answers that are hallucinations.
- To count, the model must be somewhere close to frontier, defined by being a release by a major lab that is larger than 7b parameters and competitive for its size class.
- No tool use allowed.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 80% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves according to this leaderboard: https://artificialanalysis.ai/?omniscience=omniscience-hallucination-rate.