Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.8%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète30 mars 26, 02:34 UTC30 mars 29, 02:32 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States no longer be a democracy within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Marketing this claim: https://x.com/i/status/2038360800004559183
- will create market criteria further on
- Elon claims that there will probably be more great Optimus surgeons within three years AT SCALE than the total number of human surgeons on Earth.
- If this is even remotely true then resolving this YES or NO should be trivially easy.
- If the argument is even close whether Optimus is better than humans, even for a single construction, then I moderatelyy lean toward a NO resolution.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 63,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 63,6 k €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,5 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 27,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 27,4 k €
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour (Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand (Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years? sera-t-il résolu ?
- (Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years? doit être résolu le 30 mars 2029.
- Comment (Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Marketing this claim: https://x.com/i/status/2038360800004559183