Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 69.8%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard1 oct. 25, 18:46 UTC23 mars 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market resolves to YES if, before March 24, 2030, there is a military coup attempt or self-coup attempt in the United States as defined by academic coup databases.
- Resolution criteria:
- A military coup attempt is defined as an illegal, overt attempt by military officers to unseat the incumbent government
- A self-coup (autogolpe) is defined as an attempt by an elected leader to stay in power through illegal means, with military support
- The event must be classified as a coup attempt by at least two of the following: Cline Center Coup D'état Project, Powell & Thyne Coup Dataset, or other recognized academic coup databases
- Failed attempts count as long as they meet the definition criteria
