In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?
17.8 pts (24h)IAOne-Off6aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2026 97.8%+17.8ptEn tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
39
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+17.8 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
6 juil. 25, 10:341 janv. 33, 23:59
Tendances
Règles
SimpleBench is a 200‑item multiple‑choice test designed to probe everyday human reasoning that still eludes frontier LLMs, including spatio‑temporal reasoning, social intelligence and linguistic “trick” questions.
- Unlike most other benchmarks, humans still outperform AI on the SimpleBench.
- State of play:
- • Human reference accuracy: 83.7 %
- • 2025 AI accuracy (Gemini 2.5 Pro): 62.4 %
- Why this milestone matters
Marchés ouverts
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- October 31+0.9pt100%
- September 30+0.9pt100%
- September 15+1.1pt99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 593,1 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-5.1pt58.3%
- ChatGPT+7.0pt24.1%
- Grok+1.0pt7.4%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 8,8 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+14.9pt20.6%
- September 5+14.9pt15.7%
- September 6+13.2pt13.7%
+27 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+5.8pt100%
- November 30,+3.7pt100%
- December 31,+3.7pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-13.0pt71.2%
- ChatGPT+8.0pt20.2%
- Gemini2.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 159,7 k €
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Which companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- AI capability growth this year?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- When will any company achieve AGI?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2026 à 98% au 4 septembre 2026.
- Quand In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2033.
- Comment In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : SimpleBench is a 200‑item multiple‑choice test designed to probe everyday human reasoning that still eludes frontier LLMs, including spatio‑temporal reasoning, social intelligence and linguistic “trick” questions.