Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2026 99%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète6 juil. 25, 10:34 UTC1 janv. 33, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM score >=95% on SimpleBench before 2028?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
SimpleBench is a 200‑item multiple‑choice test designed to probe everyday human reasoning that still eludes frontier LLMs, including spatio‑temporal reasoning, social intelligence and linguistic “trick” questions.
- Unlike most other benchmarks, humans still outperform AI on the SimpleBench.
- State of play:
- • Human reference accuracy: 83.7 %
- • 2025 AI accuracy (Gemini 2.5 Pro): 62.4 %
- Why this milestone matters