In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday?
One-OffGéopolitique1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 93%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète1 févr. 23, 18:49 UTC2 févr. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Doomsday Clock be between 76-83 seconds to Midnight in 2027?
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Manifold MarketsNext Update to the Doomsday Clock
Manifold MarketsWill the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock
- The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, who make the famous Doomsday Clock, thinks (or claims to think) humanity is now closer to global catastrophe than at any point since 1947*.
- I find this rather hard to believe.
- What does Manifold think? Is a catastrophe coming?
- I don't know how they define "catastrophe", so I'll leave it up to them! I'll count it as a catastrophe if the Bulletin says it's a catastrophe -- that is, if they say that "Doomsday" has come.
- * More precisely, that we thought we were at any point since 1947
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday? doit être résolu le 2 février 2028.
- Comment In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock