Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If China attacks Taiwan, will they fight US forces within a month? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 50.4% au 26 octobre 2026.

If China attacks Taiwan, will they fight US forces within a month?

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées

Données au 26 oct. 2026, 07:45 UTC · politique pm-quality-4

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 50.4%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 7 heures

Obsolète

24 oct. 22, 08:42 UTC2 févr. 30, 05:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

This market resolves YES if this market resolves YES, and within a month from that time, a Chinese military unit has either:

Killed a deployed member of the US military.
Fired on a US military vehicle or base.
This market resolves NO if this doesn't happen within a month of the resolution of the previously mentioned market.
If that market resolves NO or N/A, this market resolves N/A.