If at least one AI system causes more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, who would be behind it?
GéopolitiqueIA4moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleAccident/other 40.1%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+0.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète12 janv. 26, 17:05 UTC12 janv. 27, 17:05 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Conditional on at least one AI system causing more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, what's the type of attack?
Manifold MarketsIf an AI system is causes the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame? (no n/a)
Manifold MarketsIf an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?
Manifold MarketsWill the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?
ForecastExDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiRègles
Excluding use in the Russia/Ukraine war, because AI systems are probably already killing more than 100 people in this context
- If more than one attack, refers to the first one.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 55,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8 k €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If at least one AI system causes more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, who would be behind it? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Accident/other à 40% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand If at least one AI system causes more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, who would be behind it? sera-t-il résolu ?
- If at least one AI system causes more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, who would be behind it? doit être résolu le 12 janvier 2027.
- Comment If at least one AI system causes more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, who would be behind it? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Excluding use in the Russia/Ukraine war, because AI systems are probably already killing more than 100 people in this context