Prévision communautaire actuelle
Anthropic 39.8%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
91
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète30 juil. 23, 20:54 UTC31 déc. 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If at least one AI system causes more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, who would be behind it?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?
ForecastExConditional on at least one AI system causing more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, what's the type of attack?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketRègles
To determine the winner, we will rate the best AI system from each company based on their performance in four areas:
- General knowledge test
- These AI models can be multimodal but won't be rated on tasks involving images, sounds, or other non-textual data (e.g. the models won't be evaluated based on their ability to intelligently reason from/generate images, sounds, or other non-textual data).
- It can be a single interface system with multiple underlying models fine-tuned on different tasks.
- The said AI system can reason before providing an answer.
- The language of the tests is mainly English.