Prévision communautaire actuelle
It won't, because <insert engineering scheme here> 43%En tête parmi 11 options
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète29 sept. 22, 15:30 UTC1 janv. 00, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
0.1%
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030?
Manifold MarketsDoes the universe rotate?
Manifold MarketsIs Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRègles
Resolves once there's a strong scientific consensus on the answer, or a consensus that we can't know the answer until it happens.
- In the latter case, I'll resolve with equal probability to all the options that haven't been ruled out.
- Duplicate answers will be ignored, only the first to be submitted counts.
- Catch-all answers are ignored, I'll resolve to a more specific one.
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour How will the universe end? ?
- Manifold Markets cote It won't, because <insert engineering scheme here> à 43% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand How will the universe end? sera-t-il résolu ?
- How will the universe end? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2200.
- Comment How will the universe end? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves once there's a strong scientific consensus on the answer, or a consensus that we can't know the answer until it happens.