Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleUkraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia 60.4%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
683
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-0.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète2 juil. 23, 09:32 UTC31 déc. 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will US troops be deployed to Ukraine-Russia border in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?
KalshiWill Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI 2027 ending will the next three years look more like?
Manifold MarketsWhat does a typical day look like for you in your role/personal life?
Manifold MarketsTrump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Trying to predict the longer-term outcome of the conflict using 2030 as a cut off date sufficiently in the future hopefully.
- There is a good chance that Russia and Ukraine disagree about the border.
- For example, Ukraine has not accepted the Crimea annexion in 2014.
- Instead defacto control is sufficient for resolution but it requires 6 months of cease-fire (if not peace).
- The current goal of Ukraine is Pre-2014 border, i.e. Crimea is part of Ukraine again.
- The current goal of Russia is that Ukraine gives more territory to Russia than Crimea, e.g. Luhansk and Donetsk.