Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83.7%
Prévisionnistes
34
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète27 sept. 23, 04:42 UTC1 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2029?
Manifold MarketsHigh Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2040?
Manifold MarketsHigh Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiVideo games released this year
KalshiDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Will an AI be able to generate a high-quality, fully-functional video game to a prompt by market close?
- An AI receiving the prompt “Create a complete, high-quality, rogue-like deckbuilding video game set in a dystopian future where humans and robots are at war.” should be able to handle all aspects of game creation from this prompt alone, resulting in a fully functional, high-quality video game.
- Specifications:
- For the purpose of this market:
- AI-Generated Video Game: Refers to a complete and functional video game created by an AI without human intervention in the creative process.
- This includes game design, mechanics, graphics, sound, and coding.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 84% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2028? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will an AI be able to generate a high-quality, fully-functional video game to a prompt by market close?