Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète5 sept. 25, 19:24 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by which date?
PolymarketWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketWill Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiRègles
The market resolves YES if Hezbollah's arsenal is substantially eliminated by the end of 2026.
- By "substantially eliminated" I mean that over 90% of Hezbollah's weapons have been either destroyed, confiscated, or voluntary relinquished to the Lebanese government by the close date, and the group no longer poses a military threat to the State of Lebanon or credibly resist the Lebanese armed forces.
- I will make this determination by studying mainstream news sources (e.g., NYT, CNN) for information regarding Hezbollah's weapons.
- 1) If there is ongoing armed conflict between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) on the close date, the market will resolve NO, unless that armed conflict is at the "mopping up" phase by the LAF.
- 2) If some weapons have been relinquished but there is a dispute as to whether a substantial amount remains hidden in Hezbollah's arsenal, I will base my analysis on whether Hezbollah still appears to act as if it is an organization with a substantial military wing.
- For example, if there is still some terroritory that the LAF declines to enter due to it being a Hezbollah stronghold, that would strongly indicate that Hezbollah still has some weaponry and likely be considered a NO.
Marchés ouverts
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 23,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 312,6 k €
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Volume total
- 6,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 153,3 k €
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The market resolves YES if Hezbollah's arsenal is substantially eliminated by the end of 2026.