Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 57.4%
Prévisionnistes
1
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète14 avr. 26, 18:52 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?
Manifold MarketsAny frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?
Manifold MarketsAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Full question: Will a frontier AI model (defined as any model by OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind) achieve a success rate of 50% or higher on the METR 'Rogue Replication' or 'RepliBench' autonomous replication evaluation tasks by December 31, 2027?
- Will a Frontier AI Model Achieve a 50% pass@1 Success Rate on Autonomous Replication Benchmarks by December 2027?
- Background Autonomous replication—the capability of an AI system to acquire resources, copy its own weights, and persist across compute environments—is a critical safety threshold.
- Standardized benchmarks to measure these risks include METR's 'Rogue Replication' tasks and the UK AI Safety Institute's (AISI) 'RepliBench'.
- As of April 2026, performance on these benchmarks has progressed rapidly.
- In May 2025, the UK AISI reported that Claude 3.7 Sonnet achieved a pass@10 success rate of over 50% on 15 out of 20 task families [92e1f4].
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 57% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Full question: Will a frontier AI model (defined as any model by OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind) achieve a success rate of 50% or higher on the METR 'Rogue Replication' or 'RepliBench' autonomous replication evaluation tasks by December 31, 2027?