Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?
Corporate ActionsIAOne-OffTech1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 69.3%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète14 avr. 26, 18:53 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27?
Manifold MarketsAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketTop Chinese AI Company week of September 14th
KalshiSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketRègles
Full question: By December 31, 2027, will any 'frontier AI company' (defined as OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind) publicly state in an official blog post or report that they have used an AI agent to autonomously initiate and manage a training run costing more than $1 million without human-in-the-loop approval for individual step execution?
- Question Title
- Autonomous AI-Led Training Runs at Frontier Labs by 2028
- Between April 1, 2026, and December 31, 2027, will any "frontier AI company" (OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind) publicly state in an official blog post, technical report, "AI permission list," or "autonomy framework" that they have used an AI agent to autonomously initiate and manage a single discrete AI model training run with market-equivalent compute costs exceeding $10 million USD?
- As of April 1, 2026, the automation of AI Research and Development (AIRDA) has moved from a theoretical possibility to a core strategic "North Star" for leading AI labs.
- OpenAI has publicly targeted the deployment of an "autonomous research intern" by late 2026, capable of independent multi-day investigations [Measuring AI R&D Automation - arXiv].
Marchés ouverts
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 85,3 k €
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 184,9 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.4pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Yes+43.3pt94%
- No-43.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 21,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 20,3 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.0pt78.2%
- 1.25T–1.5T-3.0pt8.9%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 69% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Full question: By December 31, 2027, will any 'frontier AI company' (defined as OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind) publicly state in an official blog post or report that they have used an AI agent to autonomously initiate and manage a training run costing more than $1 million without human-in-the-loop approval for individual step execution?